The U.S. intelligence community has raised concerns that Iran is advancing toward the capability to produce nuclear weapons, according to a report released Thursday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI).
First reported by The Wall Street Journal, the DNI report titled “Assessment Regarding the Nuclear Activity of the Islamic Republic of Iran” provides a comprehensive analysis of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and activities between May and September 2024.
The report indicates that Iran now possesses enough fissile material to produce over a dozen nuclear weapons. Tehran has significantly increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to 20% and 60% purity—levels far beyond what is required for civilian energy purposes.
Western diplomatic sources have labeled the escalation as “extremely serious” and contradictory to Iran’s stated commitment to peaceful nuclear activities.
“These measures have no credible civilian justification and could, on the contrary, directly fuel a military nuclear program if Iran were to take the decision,” a Western diplomatic official told Reuters on Saturday.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), tasked with monitoring Iran’s nuclear program, has also voiced alarm. Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, warned on Friday that Tehran is prepared to “quite dramatically” expand its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium through the use of advanced centrifuges. These cascades, located in underground facilities, allow Iran to enrich uranium at a faster and more efficient rate.
The DNI report emphasizes that Iran has the “infrastructure and experience” to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium at multiple underground sites. This infrastructure strengthens Tehran’s ability to act on threats to develop a nuclear weapon.
The report further notes that Iran has made significant advances in its satellite and ballistic missile programs, which could shorten the timeline for the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. “Iran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region,” the report states, adding that progress in its space program provides dual-use technology applicable to military-grade missiles.
Iran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons, maintaining that its nuclear program serves peaceful civilian purposes, such as energy production and medical research. Iran’s foreign ministry asserted on Saturday that its nuclear activities remain under the continuous supervision of the IAEA. However, U.S. intelligence and the IAEA contend that Iran had an organized military nuclear program until at least 2003 and has since continued nuclear advancements that exceed civilian necessity.
The developments come amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. Israel, which regards Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat, has repeatedly vowed to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
